Is US President Barack Obama, who has put in place curbs on H-1B visas for companies that receive government aid, a real protectionist? Or is he, like Sen. John Kerry, merely posturing?

India potentially could be the worst affected by the Obama administration curb because it accounts for nearly 50% of the 65,000 H-1B visas issued in recent years. But you know what, Indian IT companies are not worried. Politicians from Pranab Mukherjee to Kamal Nath, and economist Montek Singh Ahluwalia are crying hoarse but Infosys, Wipro or TCS are keeping their cool. I am going to go with the cold business logic and wisdom of the executives, rather than the politicians.

Just look at the evidence and there can be little doubt that Obama is saying things, and seemingly doing things, that SEEM sympathetic to the American worker.

Seven years ago, when a severe downturn led to H-1B visas being slashed from a high of 115,000 per year to the present 65,000, the IT companies rode out the storm. They did the same again around 2004 when Kerry turned up the heat on outsourcing. In fact, Indian companies benefited substantially since these downturns because US companies raised outsourcing levels, and many new ones joined the outsourcing bandwagon because of compelling, even critical, cost advantages.

If anything, this time around, the game is simpler. Obama is barring the use of H-1B visas only by companies that are being bailed out by his government. This is restricted, by and large, to banks and insurance firms, and auto-makers. Auto makers such as GM and Chrysler are modest users of the H-1B visas and any change should make little impact. The financial sector, of course, forms a large clientele for Indian outsourcing firms but few hire IT professionals directly. Most contract the work to Indian firms, which in turn petition and receive the H-1B visas.

So, what happens now? The short answer is nothing.

For one, the banks and insurance firms have little need to hire new workers on H-1B visas. They are all downsizing. So the Obama rules have no impact.

Two, it is not clear if the Obama proposals specifically bar any subcontractors hiring H-1B workers. Since no such provision has come to light in the long debates, it might be fair to assume such a restriction doesn’t exist. This means it could be business as usual for the Indian IT companies. For all we know, they might emerge stronger in the next few years because outsourcing might grow even further. In the spirit of the times, might we say Jai Ho!